Comparative Study of US-China Cyber Strategy and Its Impact on the Indo-Pacific Region
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55737/qjssh.vi-ii.25351Keywords:
US, China, Cyber Strategy, Cyber Security, Indo-PacificAbstract
The growing militarization of the Indo-Pacific by both Chinese and American forces has raised concerns among scholars about potential military escalation, as illustrated by the Thucydides Trap. The arms race in this region has prompted both nations to develop advanced weaponry and explore new domains for strategic advantage, particularly in cyberspace. This militarization of the cyber domain is especially destabilizing, fostering sub-conventional warfare and drawing in third-party actors. This research paper seeks to answer whether the cyber strategies of the United States and China could escalate into military conflict. Through comparative analysis, the findings reveal several key insights. First, technological limitations hinder the widespread proliferation of malware. Second, cyber attacks are the precursor to physical kinetic attacks and thus are not ideal for tools of escalation. Finally, cyber operations typically occur before or during major military actions, suggesting that cyber escalation is a backdrop to conventional warfare. Consequently, cyber conflict between the U.S. and China is likely to manifest as sub-conventional confrontations during peacetime and as a force multiplier in armed conflict.
References
Al Jazeera. (2020, May 19). Israel Cyberattack Caused 'Total Disarray' at Iran Port. Report Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/5/19/israel-cyberattack-caused-total-disarray-at-iran-port-report
Allen, B. (2022). China’s Cyberattack Strategy Explained. Www.boozallen.com. https://www.boozallen.com/insights/cyber/chinas-cyberattack-strategy-explained.html
Allison, G. (2015, September 24). The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War? The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/
Alper, A. (2021). U.S. actions against China’s Huawei. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-CHINA/HUAWEI-TIMELINE/zgvomxwlgvd/
Amt, A. (2023). The Indo-Pacific region. German Federal Foreign Office. https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/regionaleschwerpunkte/asien/indo-pacific/2493040
Biswas, S. (2020, June 16). India-China clash: An extraordinary escalation “with rocks and clubs.” BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53071913
Blake, A. (2016, July 29). Cyberattack claims multiple airports in Vietnam. The Washington Times. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jul/29/cyberattack-claims-multiple-airports-vietnam-airli
Borges, E. (2024, February 6). Red team vs blue team: What’s the difference? Recorded Future. https://www.recordedfuture.com/threat-intelligence-101/threat-analysis/red-team-vs-blue-team
Burdette, L. (2021). Leveraging Submarine Cables for Political Gain: US Responses to Chinese Strategy. Journal of Public & International Affairs. https://openurl.ebsco.com/EPDB%3Agcd%3A1%3A11226993/detailv2?sid=ebsco%3Aplink%3Ascholar&id=ebsco%3Agcd%3A152456163&crl=c&link_origin=scholar.google.com
Chin, K. (2023, May 18). The impact of cybercrime on the economy | UpGuard. Www.upguard.com. https://www.upguard.com/blog/the-impact-of-cybercrime-on-the-economy
CISA Staff. (2024). Chinese Gas Pipeline Intrusion Campaign, 2011 to 2013 | CISA. Www.cisa.gov. https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/cybersecurity-advisories/aa21-201a
Clinton, B. (2000). “PRESIDENT CLINTON: Working to Strengthen Cybersecurity.” National Archives and Records Administration. https://clintonwhitehouse4.archives.gov/WH/Work/021600.html
Davies, R. (2023, December 30). Qualitative comparative analysis. Better Evaluation. https://www.betterevaluation.org/methods-approaches/methods/qualitative-comparative-analysis
Department of Defense Staff. (2023, November 29). DOD releases 2023 cyber strategy summary. U.S. Department of Defense. https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3523199/dod-releases-2023-cyber-strategy-summary/
Echevarria II & Antulio, J. (2024). Chapter 7, Cyber Power and Military Strategy .” Essay. In Military Strategy: A Very Short Introduction, 2nd ed., 98–109. New York, New York State: Oxford University Press.
Fischerkeller, Michael, P., & Emily, O. (2022). Goldman. “Chapter 5 Cyber Stability.” Essay. In Cyber Persistence Theory: Redefining National Security in Cyberspace 1, 1st ed., 1:86–102. 1. New York, New York State: Oxford University Press.
Gathmann, S. (2020). What’s behind the South China Sea dispute?. In YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f00V9MQBhg8
Gross, A., Heal, A., Campbell, C., Clark, D., Bott, I., & de la Torre Arenas, I. (2023). How the US is pushing China out of the internet’s plumbing. Financial Times, 13.
Haughey, C. J. (2023, August 10). The Pentagon’s 2023 cyber strategy: What you need to know. Security Intelligence. https://securityintelligence.com/articles/the-pentagons-2023-cyber-strategy-what-you-need-to-know/
INSIKT GROUP. (2021, February 28). China-linked group RedEcho targets the Indian power sector amid heightened border tensions. Recorded Future. https://www.recordedfuture.com/blog/redecho-targeting-indian-power-sector
Jakhar, P. (2020, July 30). India and China race to build along a tense frontier. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53171124
Kahn, H. (2010). On escalation: Metaphors and scenarios 1st ed. New Brunswick, NJ, New Jersey: Transaction Publishers, 2010.
Kuo, L. (2020, January 11). Taiwan election: Tsai Ing-Wen wins landslide in rebuke to China. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/11/taiwan-re-elects-tsai-ing-wen-as-president-in-clear-message-to-china
LaRocco, L. A. (2024, March 13). A look inside the Chinese cyber threat at the biggest ports in the US. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/13/a-look-inside-the-true-nature-of-chinese-cyber-threat-at-us-ports.html
Lemos, R. (2024). Japan, Philippines & US to Share Cyber Threat Intel. Japan, Philippines & US to Share Cyber Threat Intel. https://www.darkreading.com/cybersecurity-operations/japan-philippines-us-forge-cyber-threat-intelligence-sharing-alliance
Lewis, J. A. (2020). Cyber Solarium and the Sunset of Cybersecurity. Csis.org. https://www.csis.org/analysis/cyber-solarium-and-sunset-cybersecurity
Libicki, M. C. (2020). 12th International Conference on Cyber Conflict 20/20 Vision: The Next Decade. In CYBER CONFLICT. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 12TH 2020. (CyCon 2020). Virtual: CCDOE.
Lieberthal, K. G. (2011, December 21). The American Pivot to Asia. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-american-pivot-to-asia/
Lin, H. (2012). Escalation Dynamics and Conflict Termination in Cyberspace. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 6(3), 46–70. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26267261
Martina, M., Zengerle, P., & Goudsward, A. (2024, January 31). US officials deliver warning that Chinese hackers are targeting infrastructure. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/technology/cybersecurity/chinese-hackers-are-targeting-us-infrastructure-fbi-chief-testify-2024-01-31/
Mishra, A. (2021, April 3). “Cyber incident” affected Mumbai power supply - The Sunday Guardian Live. The Sunday Guardian Live. https://sundayguardianlive.com/news/cyber-incident-affected-mumbai-power-supply
Morgan, F. E., & Karl, P. (2008). Mueller, Evan S. Medeiros, Kevin L. Pollpeter, and Roger Cliff. Dangerous thresholds. managing escalation in the 21st Century 1st ed. Santa Monica, Califor: Rand Corp.
Nakashima, E., & Menn, J. (2023, December 11). China’s cyber intrusions have hit ports and utilities, officials say. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/12/11/china-hacking-hawaii-pacific-taiwan-conflict/
Pilling, D. (2011, September 13). China’s spreading ‘core interests’. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/7aadbf36-bdd2-373e-98f6-3d9e46547e7c
Reuters Staff. (2016, April 11). South Korea tells U.N. that North Korea GPS jamming threatens boats, planes. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0X81SN/
Rundle, J. (2019, July 11). U.S. Coast Guard warns shipping industry on cybersecurity. The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-coast-guard-warns-shipping-industry-on-cybersecurity-11562837402
Ruwitch, J. (2014, July 27). Satellites and seafood: China keeps fishing fleet connected in disputed waters. Reuters. Archived by Internet Archive on November 22, 2015. https://web.archive.org
Sanger, D. E., & Myers, S. L. (2018, November 29). After a Hiatus, China Accelerates Cyberspying Efforts to Obtain U.S. Technology. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/29/us/politics/china-trump-cyberespionage.html
Schelling, T. C. (1967). Arms and influence 1st ed. New Haven, Connecticut: Yale University Press.
Schochet, N., & Carr, E. (2023). Navigating China-US Subsea Cable Competition. Thediplomat.com. https://thediplomat.com/2023/08/navigating-china-us-subsea-cable-competition/
Segal, A., Akimenko, V., Giles, K., Pinkston, D. A., Lewis, J. A., Bartlett, B., ... & Noor, E. (2020). The future of cybersecurity across the Asia-Pacific. asia policy, 15(2), 57-114. https://www.nbr.org/wp-content/uploads/pdfs/publications/ap15-2_cyberrt_apr2020.pdf
Sharikov, P. A. (2019). Evolution of American cyber security policies. World Economy and International Relations, 63(10), 51–58. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-10-51-58
Shehu, A., Umar, M., & Aliyu, A. (2023). Cyber kill chain analysis using artificial intelligence. Asian Journal of Research in Computer Science, 16(3), 210–219. https://doi.org/10.9734/ajrcos/2023/v16i3357
Srivastava, M., Felicia, S., & Demetri, S. (2023, April 21). China building cyber weapons to hijack enemy satellites, says US leak. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/881c941a-c46f-4a40-b8d8-9e5c8a6775ba
Tatarski, M. (2020). China 1937 CN Team Infiltrate Vietnam Airlines, Airports. Asean News Today. https://aseannewstoday.com/2016/hack-vietnam-airports-highlights-weaknesses/
The Maritime Executive. (2012, October 10). Iran’s offshore platforms become target of recent cyber attacks. The Maritime Executive. https://maritime-executive.com/article/iran-s-offshore-platforms-become-target-of-recent-cyber-attacks
The White House. (1998, May 22). Critical Infrastructure Protection (PDD 63). Irp.fas.org. https://irp.fas.org/offdocs/pdd/pdd-63.htm
The White House. (2006, September). The National Security Strategy 2006. Archives.gov. https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/nsc/nss/2006/
Trang, P. (2014, May 13). Hơn 200 website Việt Nam bị hacker tấn công. BAO DIEN TU VTV; vtv.vn. https://vtv.vn/cong-nghe/hon-200-website-viet-nam-bi-hacker-tan-cong--139488.htm
Trinh, V. D. (2024, March 20). Vietnam’s struggle with cyber security | East Asia Forum. East Asia Forum. https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/03/20/vietnams-struggle-with-cyber-security/
Vann, J. J., & Fagan, L. (2024, April 22). 2023 Cyber Trends and Insights in the Marine Environment Report. United States Coast Guard News. https://www.news.uscg.mil/maritime-commons/Article/3750095/2023-cyber-trends-and-insights-in-the-marine-environment-report/
Whittaker, I. (2023, April 25). Pentagon leaks suggest China developing ways to attack satellites – here’s how they might work. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/pentagon-leaks-suggest-china-developing-ways-to-attack-satellites-heres-how-they-might-work-204294
Winterfeld, S. (2013). Chapter 1 Cyber Threatscape. Essay. In The Basics of Cyber Warfare Understanding the Fundamentals of Cyber Warfare in Theory and Practice 1, 1st ed., 1:1–14. Amsterdam, Netherlands: Syngress, Elsevier, 2013.
Wu, D. (2020, August 19). Taiwan accuses Chinese hackers of targeting its citizens’ data. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-19/chinese-hackers-target-taiwan-data-through-government-systems
Xiaozhuo, L. (2021). Indo-Pacific should shun new Cold War: China Daily editorial. Chinadaily.com.cn. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202103/14/WS604dedf7a31024ad0baaf092.html
Yang, J. H. (2016). International conference on social science, humanities and modern education. Atlantic Press. https://www.atlantis-press.com/proceedings/sshme-16/25857225
Zhicheng, D. (2020). No shaking Taiwan from the motherland. Chinadaily.com.cn. http://epaper.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/16/WS5e1fa541a310a2fabb7a191a.html
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Syed Ahmed Ali, Dr. Fouzia Amin
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
